Swing States and Turnout

A note on Turnout Data.

In this case swing states are determined by actual results rather than by simulations as when I had looked at this before. So they are real historical, not made up imaginary numbers. The criteria I used was the difference between Democrat and Republican states divided by the sum of votes cast. I then order them by this ‘closeness’ and select the top 15.

Average Turnout Percentages

Considering turnout for the years with Electoral College victories with less popular votes.

The overall Democrat turnout average 28.117%
The overall Republican turnout average 27.849%

2000
Democrat turnout 25.121%
Republican turnout 27.301%

2016
Democrat turnout 27.191%
Republican turnout 29.395%

2020 for contrast

2020
Democrat turnout 31.362%
Republican turnout 31.468%

Average Turnout Distances

How far the year’s turnout is from the mean turnout across all years

Average distance Dem 2000 -1.742
Average distance Rep 2000 -2.209

Average distance Dem 2016 -0.485
Average distance Rep 2016 0.085

Average distance Dem 2020 1.878
Average distance Rep 2020 2.5

2000 Swing State Turnout

##    State D Dist D Turn R Dist R Turn Winner EC
## 10    FL -3.677  23.9% -2.737  23.9%      R 25
## 33    NM -3.745  22.7% -0.882  22.7%      D  5
## 49    WI -2.624  32.4%  0.357  32.3%      D 11
## 13    IA -3.487    30% -1.647  29.8%      D  7
## 38    OR -2.998  29.7%  1.048  29.4%      D  7
## 31    NH -4.042    30% -0.841  30.9%      R  4
## 24    MN -2.826  34.2% -0.497  32.4%      D 10
## 25    MO -2.072  27.2% -1.993  29.1%      R 11
## 36    OH -4.309  26.7% -1.683  28.7%      R 21
## 34    NV -4.568  19.3% -1.285  20.7%      R  4
## 43    TN -0.524  23.1% -2.765    25%      R 11
## 39    PA -3.085  27.3% -2.338  25.1%      D 23
## 23    MI -2.931  30.2% -1.519  27.2%      D 18
## 22    ME -2.597  35.1%  0.531  31.5%      D  4
## 3     AR -1.351  21.7% -2.241  24.3%      R  6


Summary
Democrat winners 85
Democrat distance -44.8
Republican winners 82
Republican distance -18.5

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Average Turnout % Difference - 2000
1-5: 0.131
6-10: 1.591
11-15: 2.68

2016 Swing State Turnout

##    State D Dist D Turn R Dist R Turn Winner EC
## 23    MI -2.216  30.9%  2.366  31.1%      R 16
## 31    NH  0.601  34.7%  2.716  34.4%      D  4
## 39    PA -0.140  30.3%  3.317  30.7%      R 20
## 49    WI -2.219  32.8%  1.452  33.4%      R 10
## 10    FL  0.523  28.1%  2.163  28.8%      R 29
## 24    MN -1.705  35.3%  1.182  34.1%      D 10
## 34    NV  1.514  25.3%  2.033  24.1%      D  6
## 22    ME -1.918  35.8%  2.653  33.6%      D  4
## 4     AZ  1.056  23.5%  1.419  25.4%      R 11
## 28    NC  2.168    29%  2.805  31.2%      R 15
## 11    GA  1.221  24.9%  1.528  27.7%      R 16
## 6     CO  3.595    34%  0.767  30.6%      D  9
## 46    VA  3.836  32.1%  0.462  28.7%      D 13
## 36    OH -3.104  27.9%  2.713  33.1%      R 18
## 33    NM  0.975  27.4% -0.802  22.8%      D  5


Summary
Democrat winners 51
Democrat distance 4.185
Republican winners 135
Republican distance 26.77

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Average Turnout % Difference - 2016
1-5: 0.424
6-10: 1.758
11-15: 3.916


Taking the last election as a more typical election year to contrast with these.

2020 Swing State Turnout

##    State D Dist D Turn   R Dist R Turn Winner EC
## 11    GA  6.643  30.3% 4.006020  30.2%      D 16
## 4     AZ  6.821  29.3% 5.153084  29.1%      D 11
## 49    WI  1.131  36.2% 3.802201  35.7%      D 10
## 39    PA  3.939  34.4% 6.138101  33.5%      D 20
## 28    NC  5.910  32.7% 5.162468  33.6%      R 15
## 34    NV  5.525  29.4% 5.921058  27.9%      D  6
## 23    MI  3.052  36.2% 5.498248  34.2%      D 16
## 10    FL  2.906  30.5% 5.980624  32.6%      R 29
## 44    TX  4.559  24.2% 3.092049  27.1%      R 38
## 24    MN  3.140  40.1% 1.737189  34.7%      D 10
## 31    NH  4.721  38.8% 1.695988  33.4%      D  4
## 36    OH -1.243  29.8% 4.651024    35%      R 18
## 13    IA -1.733  31.8% 6.099737  37.5%      R  6
## 22    ME  2.839  40.6% 2.695263  33.6%      D  4
## 46    VA  8.285  36.6% 1.512680  29.7%      D 13


Summary
Democrat winners 110
Democrat distance 56.5
Republican winners 106
Republican distance 63.15

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Average Turnout % Difference - 2020
1-5: 0.499
6-10: 2.776
11-15: 6.052


Not entirely typical as 2020 was the highest turnout year according to my web page source. With a nationwide average of 61.4%, the next highest year was 2008 with 56.9%. I have heard mention that with the move of Harris to the top of the ticket there is Democratic enthusiasm like there was in 2008. How does Democratic turnout compare for those two years?

2008 Obama turnout 30.8%.
2020 Biden turnout 31.4%.

As already noted 2020 was a record turnout year. For whatever motivated voters, Biden’s turnout actually exceeded Obama’s. Harris of course was also on the 2020 ticket, and sometimes the talk is that she could put together a ‘coalition’ similar to Obama’s.

Note that in 2020 the Democrats were much closer in turnout than in 2000, 2016. This allowed them to win the swing states in this election. Notice that all the northern “blue wall” states fall into the swing category and were swept in 2020 by Biden - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, they are still swing states, not necessarily what you would associate with a ‘wall’ for upcoming elections.

There was a fair amount of talk about some of these 2020 swing states post-election. Georgia with Orders from the DA [4], Arizona of the Cyber Ninjas [6], Notice in these two states the Democrats had their best turnout gains. Also, Wisconsin of the election recount [7]. Pennsylvania had the best Republican turnout gain but they did not succeed in winning the state.

Also somewhat discussed, and it does turn up in the 2020 top 10, is the possiblity that Texas might be becoming a swing state. A bit the other way I’m originally from Minnesota which I always thought of as solid blue. Now though that appears just below Texas as a swing state. I’m not sure how at risk it is but Harris did just pick Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate.

So, possibly not the deepest insight but it seems swing states and turnout are important. Turnout in swing states probably doubly [8]so. Given this I find it strange that a candidate would say they don’t need votes [9]

Again, these elections happen once every four years, it is difficult to call anything ‘typical’. In considering this I thought it might be useful to consider the swing state turnout differences for all the elections from 2000 on.

Swing State Turnout Differences In Ranges

##       Year        1_5      6_10     11_15
## tdiff 2000  0.1311604  1.590966  2.680234
## X     2004  0.6980677  2.082592  3.697898
## X.1   2008 10.7027048 16.885724 11.887326
## X.2   2012  9.4495818 14.396069 10.566800
## X.3   2016  0.4241536  1.757940  3.915853
## X.4   2020  0.4987496  2.775959  6.052002

Given the first three elections considered (2000,2016,2020) it seemed possible that the 2020 results meant there was a polarization of the electorate, possibly trending. Looking at the above what do you think it might say about ‘polarization’? I was planning to do interpretation elsewhere at this time.

Final(?) Conclusion

Elections can have gerrymandering-like results. Not due to imbalances in vote gaps but to being very close and the mix of turnout, swing states and maybe luck.

Turnout Data

Everything I’ve done for turnout is based on Voter Turnout Ranking of States [10]. This has apparently been done by the state of New Hampshire. It was the only place I found historical turnout numbers by state. A few places seemed to have state turnout for the 2020 election but nothing prior to that. With the percentages given and having the Democrat and Republican total votes it is possible to determine what the state voting age population should be. The following shows that by election year.

This indicates that voting age population (VAP) is increasing by election with 2016 for some reason being an outlier where the population decreased. I can think of no reason this should be true, so an outlier. I don’t know how these populations were determined. Probably from census data but that, of course, is only done every 10 years. Maybe interpolating intermediate results somehow. With the VAP determined then the party turnout can be determined.

Taking the mean across the years a relative distance from that mean can be determined. The strictly increasing value of the VAP is problematic for this. I tried a little bit to normalize the years but the results didn’t look correct so now I don’t adjust. For very early election years like 2000 this means the turnout would be less more than it should be and for 2020 more. This should be true for both parties though, so I think using this for relative comparisons of the parties should have some validity.